中国金融发展与产业结构变迁

Financial Development and Industrial Structure Evolution in China

本文从金融发展与产业结构变迁的理论出发,运用中国1952—2005年的时间序列数据,对理论假设进行实证检验。理论和实证结果同时显示了中国金融畸形发展的非常态模式,以致对产业结构变迁表现出的扭曲效应。金融发展整体作用于产业结构的长期效应,就业结构上为第三产业受其影响显著,第一、二产业所受影响仅是名义而非实际的;产值结构上,第一产业所受影响显著,第二、三产业与金融发展长期关系不显著。金融发展不同方面的影响,经济货币化显示了有利地推动作用,金融资源和金融系统资源配置效率的变动则未表现出积极的效果。

Based on the theories of financial development and industrial structure evolution, this paper makes an empirical test of the theoretical hypothesis by using the time-series data from 1952 to 2005. Both the theoretical and empirical results show the abnormality of finance development in China, which induces the distort effect on industrial structure evolution. With regard to the employment structure, the long-term effect of financial development on the tertiary industry is evident while that on the primary and the secondary industries are only nominal. With regard to the product value structure, the primary industry is influenced evidently, and the secondary industry as well as the tertiary industry doesn't have the long-term Cointegration with financial development. As to the influence of different aspects of finance development, economy moneytarization promotes the industrial structure upgrading, but the variety of financial resources and the collocation efficiency of financial system doesn't show positive effect.