经济发展对房价长期走势的决定作用——基于中国及国际的比较分析

The Determinant Effect of Economic Development on Real Estate Market Price in a Long Run-based on Comparative Analysis Between China and International Peers

本文通过国际和国内房地产发展史的深入对比分析,指出需求是房地产价格变化的决定性因素,经济发展和房价变化互为因果,中国经济的持续快速增长决定了中国的房价长期变化趋势必然是向上的;但必须防止短期内房价的大幅上涨,以避免房价的大起大落,为此应将需求作为调控重点。

Through in-depth comparative analysis of real estate market developing histories between China and international peers, the article reveals that demand is the determinant factor in affecting market price fluctuation. And also, economic development and real estate market price have interactively causal effects of each other. The successive rapid growth of Chinese economy decides that, as a trend, the price of Chinese real estate market price in a long run is upward. But we still must keep the price in a steady and sustainable curve. As for this specific reason, we need to set house demand as our focus in the real estate market controlling process.