我国冬半年局地气温对北半球增暖响应的特征分析

CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPERATURE IN CHINA IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN WARMING IN WINTER HALF YEAR

采用主分量分析（ＰＣＡ）与回归分析相结合的方法，研究北半球气候变化与我国区域气候变化的一些统计学关系。根据北半球平均增暖的条件，推求我国各地气温变化的统计估计模型，借助某些一般大气环流模式（ＡＧＣＭ）数值试验结果，计算并分析了在ＣＯ２浓度倍增时，我国各地增温幅度及其置信区间。结果表明：我国各区域与北半球平均增暖趋势基本同步，但幅度不一；我国增暖敏感区主要在西北、华北和东北。

Examined are statistical relations of climatic change in the Northerm Hemisphere and China in terms of principal component and regression techniques in combination. Based on the causes of the Northern warming are developed some statistical models for climatic response in this country on a local basis, and with the aid of part of the AGCM results, calculation is performed to investigate the temperature increments and confidence intervals for various areas of China in the presence of CO 2 doubling. Results show that the mean warming trend is roughly synchronous, though at varying increment for these areas, with the warming; the sensitive regions are located largely in NW, N and NE China, with bigger uncertainties over the southern part.