我国贸易顺差存在的根源与发展趋势研究

A Research on the Causes and the Development Tendency of Chinese Trade Surplus

近几年来,伴随着我国经济的快速发展,我国的贸易顺差不断增长,但到目前为止,对于我国贸易顺差存在的根源及发展趋势等问题还缺乏全面、深入的研究。文章基于两个实际经济变量模型对我国贸易收支出现顺差的原因进行了分析,认为国内有效需求不足和国内投资过度扩张、贸易品生产相对过剩与公共品供给不足以及国民储蓄超过国内投资是我国贸易收支出现顺差的直接原因,而人口红利、大规模的工业化与城市化、地方政府行为扭曲、金融抑制等因素决定了我国贸易顺差将在较长时期内存在。

In recent years, with the rapid development of Chinese economy, Chinese trade surplus has increased unceasingly. However, at present, there is hardly any comprehensive and thorough research on Chinese trade surplus. Based on two actual economic variable models, this paper analyzes the reasons for trade surplus. The direct reasons include insufficiency of effective domestic demand, excessive expansion of domestic investment, relative superfluity of trade commodity, insufficient supply of public goods, civilian deposits over domestic investment. What is more, many factors, such as population bonus, large-scale industrialization and urbanization, conduction contortion of local governments, financial depression, determine that Chinese trade surplus will exist for a long time.