政府最优收入平滑分析——对中国1953～2005年数据的实证研究

Optimal Government Revenue Smoothing:The Case of China

收入平滑假说研究在跨期预算条件下,政府如何利用税收和发行货币两种方式来追求支出融通政策所产生的扭曲成本最小。文章利用中国1953年至2005年的数据,对放松货币流通速度不变假设下的收入平滑假说进行检验,以探究我国财政和货币当局在税率和通货膨胀率的制定上是否符合收入平滑原理。结果显示,收入平滑假说在中国成立。

Revenue smoothing hypothesis studies how government minimizes the distortionary costs of revenue collection by raising taxation and issuing money under the intertemporal budget constraint. This paper uses Chinese data between 1953 and 2005 to test the revenue smoothing model without the assumption of stationary money velocity. Its goal is to explore whether the monetary and fiscal authorities use the revenue smoothing principle to determine tax rate and inflation rate. The result shows the revenue smoothing principle is valid in China.