全球失衡、美元霸权及其对人民币汇改的影响

US Dollar Privilege and Global Unbalance and their Effect on the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Regime

全球经济失衡持续加深,其根源是新时期的美元霸权与"新特里芬难题"。当今的美元霸权是在全球金融自由化不断深入,且美元不再与黄金挂钩的国际浮动汇率制下形成的,这为美国谋取美元霸权的利益带来了更大的便利。美元霸权导致人民币升值绩效的弱化;对人民币汇改的速度也会产生负面影响:导致"浮动恐惧"和美元大权重之刚性。人民币汇率决不是全球失衡的"救命稻草",美国必须为化解全球经济失衡发挥主导作用。

The global economy is involved in further unbalance, which is the result of the new US dollar privilege and the ＂New Triffin Dilemma＂ . The current US dollar privilege has developed after the dollar is not valued in gold. As a result, the US enjoys more benefits from its dollars＇ privilege. The privilege of US dollar is weakening the effects of the RMB appreciation and it may also hinder the reform of RMB exchange rate system, which will lead to the ＂float fear＂ and the priority of US Dollar.