宏观调控与中国证券市场

Macroeconomic Regulation and China's Securities Market

中央对股市的政策调控,目标是要解决流动性过剩问题,以防止资本市场出现过热。由于这些政策目前尚处在开始实施阶段,所以效果还不明显。但一旦实施到位,证券市场将会出现较大的结构性调整。未来央行采取的利率政策和人民币汇率的走势是影响股市的重要因素,虚拟经济过热将会直接导致实体经济过热,因此,政府决策部门不仅要以CPI作为调控经济的目标,还要监控资产市场的变化情况。

The present text analyses the effects and impacts of the macro-economic regulations on capital markets in China,with criticism made on past policies and perspectives to future policy trends.The text argues that the macroeconomic regulation is intended to curb the problem of excess fluidity so as to prevent the overheating of the capital market.When the policies are fully implemented,there will inevitably a major structural readjustment in the securities market.At the same time,the future interest rate policy and the trends of RMB exchange rate will also significantly affect the securities market performance.So the decision makers should not limit themselves with only CPI as policy goals,but the fluctuations of the capital market.