摘要
本文将货币幻觉纳入投资函数和储蓄函数,并利用2000年9月到2006年8月的月度数据,经过HP滤波处理后采用Almon多项式分布滞后模型估计出投资函数和储蓄函数。我们发现在考虑货币幻觉的情况下,一方面,投资者存在货币幻觉且利率对投资有很好的调控作用,另一方面,储户不存在货币幻觉并且利率对储蓄的调控作用不明显,其原因可能是社保制度的缺位增强了储户的安全性动机以及投资渠道的不完善导致了储蓄的利率刚性。
By taking into account money illusion, this paper uses monthly data from Sep 2000 to Aug 2006 adjusted by HP filter and Almon polynomial distributed lag model to estimate both investment and saving functions. By taking into account money illusion, we find that investors have money illusion and investment is sensitive to interest rate. In contrast, savers have no money illusion and saving is not sensitive to interest rate due to default of social security system and lack of alternative investment channels in China.
出处
《南方经济》
北大核心
2007年第8期38-45,共8页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
北京师范大学科研基金的资助。
关键词
货币幻觉
利率传导机制
Almon分布滞后模型
协整检验
Money Illusion
Transmission Mechanism of Interest Rate
Almon Polynomial Distributed Lag Model
Cointera＇ation Test
