森林火灾蔓延多模型预测系统研究

Multi-model forecasting system of forest fire spreading based on deductive database.

该文通过对森林火蔓延模型的研究,建立了一种使用产生式原则的多模型森林地表火蔓延预测系统.此预测系统通过与森林火灾实时监控系统连接,将数据流动由传统公式计算中的单向流动,变为计算数据流回输入端,进行反馈修正计算,从而形成一个对数据库的修正与补充的系统,以达到减小模型预测误差的目的.与实测结果比较表明,该系统的预测结果可信,能够实现林火蔓延的预测.

Through the study on the model of forecasting forest fire spreading, this research built a multi-model predicting system based on the production rule, The forecasting system, which communicates with the forest fire monitoring system on line, takes unilateralism of the real time data in the traditional formula to the calculation, and the data go back to the input port for feeding back. It formed an amending and complementing system to the database aiming at reducing forecasting errors of the model. Compared with the practical consequences, the forecasting results by this system are believable and the system can fulfil the forecast of forest fire behavior.