中国制造业动态与经济发展:现实与假说

Reality and Hypothesis: Trends and Development of China's Manufacturing Industries

中国制造业发展呈现出独特的轨迹,其与经济发展的关联与发展理论假说存在一些不一致甚至相背离的状况。本文重点试图对两个问题作出解释:为什么中国六七十年代就形成了占GNP份额极高、重工业主导型的制造业,但几十年之后仍位于低收入国家之列?为什么中国制造业动态中的一些经验统计与发展理论假说存在相背离现象?是中国经济发展历程的荒诞?还是发展理论的贫乏?

There are some unusual indications in the development of Chinese manufacturing industries. The interrelations between this development and the development of Chinese economy are somewhat different. even deviate, from the development theoretical hypothesis. The article tries to answer the following main questions: In 1960s and 70s China built up manufacturing industries, of which the main constituent was heavy industry and the share in GNP was extremely large; hut after decades, China is still ranking among the nations with low income, what are the reasons? Why are some experienced statistics in the trends of Chinese manufacturing industries deviate from the development theoretical hypothesis? Is the development course of Chinese economy absurd, or is the development theory poor?