优惠政策调整对我国氮肥企业的影响分析

Analysis of Effect of Readjustment of Preferential Policy on Nitrogenous Fertilizer Plants in China

针对目前提出的化肥产业政策转变"三步走"的改革方案,核算了优惠政策取消对氮肥生产成本和氮肥企业竞争力的影响。结果表明:2005年国家对氮肥产业的优惠金额达269.72亿元;取消优惠政策后,气头企业的尿素生产成本上升幅度为308～435元/t,煤头企业的成本上升幅度为70～258元/t,中、小型企业的成本上升幅度比大型企业大,大型企业的竞争优势增强,中、小型企业的竞争优势被削弱。取消优惠政策在一定程度上将促进我国氮肥企业向大型化发展,促进氮肥生产装置向原料产地集中。但如果在短期内取消优惠政策,有可能造成国内氮肥企业大面积亏损;如果氮肥产品市场价格大幅上涨,国外低成本地区的企业将进入中国市场,届时我国氮肥企业必然会受到冲击。

In the light of the currently proposed reform plan of transforming the chemical fertilizer industrial policy of ＂going in three steps＂, calculations are made of the effect of cancellation of the preferential policy on the production cost of nitrogenous fertilizers and the competitiveness of their plants. The results show that in 2005 the concessional amount given by the state to the nitrogenous fertilizer industry came to RMB 26.972 billion yuan, and if the preferential policy is cancelled, the urea production cost of plants based on natural gas will increase by RMB 308 -435 yuart/t, that based on coal will rise by RMB 70 -258 yuan/t, the cost of medium and small plants will increase more than that of large plants, the competitive power of large plants will be strengthened, and that of medium and small plants will be reduced. The cancellation of the preferential policy will encourage to a certain extent the development of the domestic nitrogenous fertilizer plants into large ones and the production units to be grouped in sources of feedstocks. However, if this policy is cancelled in the near term it may lead to large losses for domestic plants ; and if the market price of nitrogenous fertilizers increases by a big margin, foreign plants in low-cost areas will probably enter into the domestic market, inevitably exerting an impact on the domestic plants.