张家界旅游客流波动影响因素的实证研究

The Positive Research on Affecting factors of Zhangjiajie Tourism Stream Fluctuation

以需求理论为基础,构建了影响张家界旅游客流波动的计量经济学模型来分析其旅游客流波动的主要影响因素,并评价各因素发生变化时对其旅游市场需求产生的影响。通过实证研究得到的基本结论是:影响张家界旅游客流波动的主要因素是宏观政治经济环境,游客在张家界旅游的成本,游客本身的经济条件,与张家界相竞争的旅游目的地旅游价格水平和旅游者"自我宣传效应、旅游持续性行为"等。

Based on the demand theory, the article constructs econometric model to analyze all kinds of main factors that affect tourism stream fluctuation of Zhangjiajie, and to evaluate the affecting degree to Zhangjiajie tourism demand when every factor changes. Through positive research, we think the major factors are as follows： macroeconomic and political environment, cost of tourism in Zhangjiajie, the economic conditions of tourists, tourist price level of the regions competing with Zhangjiajie, the ＇word of mouth＇ effect and the behavioral persistence of tourists.