沥青路面使用性能预测模型的研究

The Research of Pavement Ability Predicting of Road Pavement Management

应用引入回归技术的马尔可夫过程建模方法,建立使用性能变量的预测模型.在进行路面性能预测时,主要从路面损坏状况、结构承载力、行驶舒适性和安全性能四个方面分别评价路面使用性能并加权成路面综合评价指标.先对4项指标分别预测,再综合各预测指标得到综合指标的预测值.这种预测的方法简化了路况状态和转移概率矩阵的建立.在此以某地区序号14、15两条公路的路面调查数据为基础,得出本地区的路面性能预测方程和回归曲线.

The paper used Markov process analysis to build model and use characteristics variance predicted model. When predicting pavement abilities, it is mainly evaluated in damage, structure bearing force, amenity design, and safety characteristics for pavement ability to weight for pavement comprehensive evaluation indexes system. The first, we respectively predicted four indexes, then the second, we synthesis every index to get pavement comprehensive evaluation indexes sys- tem. This predicting method simplified pavement state and transition probability matrix. In this paper we are based on Number 14,15 road surveying data to build pavement ability predicting formulation and regression curve.