政府投资项目全面投资控制理论和方法研究

Research on Total Investment Control of Government Projects

目前国际上前沿的全面造价(管理)理论和方法尚局限在对概念和理论的研究上,而对其方法论的研究尚无突破性进展,对其具体技术方法的研究尚十分欠缺。以WLC、CS、ILS理论为基础,建立了基于非线性测算理论BPNN、FIS、FC的政府投资项目全面投资确定方法模型,以及基于非线性优化控制理论Pontryagin极值原理、EVM、GM(1,1)的政府投资项目全面投资控制方法模型;并结合案例进行了分析,分析说明模型具有较高的可靠度和精确度。其次,建立了基于物种种群竞争制衡理论的全面投资组织管理理论和方法体系,构建了以政府投资项目建设管理局为基础的双层代建制模式,建立了内部以投资、建设、使用、监管四权分离,外部以党领导下的政府、司法、人大政协各自独立、分权制衡、廉正监察署独立监督的内外部监督控制体制。为解决每年近6000亿元的政府投资项目"主体虚位"、"三超"、腐败等顽疾,保证其顺利实施并有所节余,提供决策保证,为有关政府投资决策、管理和实施部门提供改革和运行的决策依据。

The present research on international total cost management is still limited within the discussion of conceptions and theory, and has no prominent advancement in the methodology till now. According to the theories of WLC （Whole Life Cost）, CS （Cost-significance） and ILS （Integrated Logistic Support）, this paper firstly sets up two model, the total investment estimation model based on the nonlinear theorems like BPNN （Back-Propagation Neural Network）, FIS （Fuzzy Inference System） and FC （Fuzzy Clustering）, and the total investment control model on a basis of nonlinear control theorems such as Pontryagin Theorem, Earned Value Management and GM（1,1）. Case analyses prove that the models＇ reliability and accuracy are good. The management system of government-invested projects should be reformed, the core of which is to set up a double-agency system with the government-invested management bureau as the foundation. Then based on the theory of species＇ competitive evolution, it is important to make up an inner and outer supervision system of government-invested projects. Inside the management system of government-invested projects, it is necessary to form a four-power balance structure of decision, construction, operation and supervision, and outside is a four-power balance system with Government, Justice, NPC （National People＇s Congress） and CPPCC （the Chinese People＇s Political Consultative Congress）, and Independent Bureau against Corruption under the leadership of the CCP. The theories of TIC are beneficial to the settlement of hot problems in governmental investment projects of amounting to 600 billion per year such as ＂body devoid＂, ＂three exceedings＂, peculation, and corruption etc, so as to ensure the smooth execution of government projects or even having some surplus, and supply decision guarantees and reform gist for governmental investment decision makers, administration sectors and executants.