论中美双边航空运输协定自由化的影响

On Impact of Liberalization of China-US Bilateral Air Service Agreement

双边航空运输协定自由化影响研究是对政策有效性评估的基本依据。研究试图解决在数据种类和时间长度有限的情况下,如何对双边航空运输协定影响进行评估的问题。运用灰色系统理论对中美双边航空运输市场不受外界因素影响的运输量值进行预测,然后与受外界因素影响的实际运输量值比较,进而定量判断中美双边航空协定自由化的影响。研究结果表明:1999年和2004年两次修订的《中美民用航空运输协定》对中美航空运输业的影响都是积极的。

The measurement of the impact of the liberalization of bilateral air service agreements（ASAs） is essential to the evaluation of the effectiveness of policies, This thesis tries to quantify the impact of ASAs in the context of limitation of data sorts and their duration. It applies the grey system theory to the forecast of air traffic between China and US without the exertion of exogenous factors,here mainly the ASA. Comparing the forecast with the actual figures with the exertion of exogenous factors,we measure the impact of the liberalization of China--US ASA and conclude that the 1999 and 2004 revisions of China--US ASA are positive.