棉花年景评价方法

Study on the Year′s Harvest Assessment of Cotton

文章介绍两种棉花年景评价方法：综合气象要素评价法和相似分析评价法。前者是将ＡＢ报收到的旬平均气温、旬降水量和旬日照时数按照一定的原则组合成为综合气象要素，分析历史综合气象要素和棉花产量丰歉，得出其评价指标，依据指标，进行实时棉花年景评价；后者是根据历史资料，确定丰歉年型，利用相似分析原理，得出相似分析评价指标，根据指标，判断棉花产量的丰歉。结果表明，这两种评价方法在棉花产量丰歉评价中，准确率都在９０％以上。

Two methods assessing the year′s harvest of cotton are introduced.One is comprehensive element and another is analogous analysis.The first is that a assessing index is given by analysing historical comprehensive meteorological element,which is adequately established by using ten days′ mean temperature,ten days′ precipitation and sunshine hours of AB telex data,and bumper or poor harvest of cotton.In the second,typical year of failure or good harvest of cotton is firstly defined.Analogous analysis indexes were attained by using principle of similar analysis.It is shown that their accuracy can reach more than 90% on adjudging bumper or poor harvest of cotton by using these indexes.