中期天气预报客观系统的研究

THE STUDY OF MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECAST OBJECTIVE SYSTEM

本文介绍了一个针对我国目前中长时效天气预报在客观、定量方面存在的不足而研制出来的中期天气预报客观化系统。它使中期天气预报成为模拟气象专家解决复杂问题时科学综合、逻辑推理的思维过程。经试用检验,未来五天气温和降水的确率各为94％和81％,此常规方法高10分左右。这种客观定量的预报方法已开始在全省推广使用。

In this paper a extended forecast objective system is in tro- duoed.It is made according to our state has been existing the insufficient in objection and quantity at present.It has maee mid-range forecast become a think proceeding that analog the meteorological experts to synthesize scientifically and logical reason when they solve complex problems.By using,the accuracy rate of temperature and rainfall on 5 days in future about 94% and 81%,and it is higher about 10% than commone method's.The mid-range forecast method of objection and quantity has been used in Jilin Province.