全球CO_2排放量与地表气温升高的因果性检验

The Causal Test of Global CO 2 Emission and Global Warming

利用Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ因果检验与互谱分析方法研究了自１８６０年至１９８８年全球ＣＯ２排放量与全球地表平均气温变化值之间的关系．结果证实了在这段人类用仪器记录最长的历史阶段中，ＣＯ２排放量与平均地表气温均有显著增加；

In this paper the causality between global carbon dioxide(CO 2) emission and global warming (global surface temperature) is studied by the causal test and cross spectral analysis in both time domain and frequency domain. Evidence found from both analysis proves that there is certain degree causality between the two variables.The study in time domain shows that there is Granger causality between the global temperature changes and the global CO 2 emission, and CO 2 emission causes the temperature changes. The research on cross spectra confirms the results in time domain.