湖泊渔业资源开发的系统动力学模型研究

Study on System Dynamics Model for Developing the Fishery Resources in Lakes

采用灰色系统理论与国际先进的人工神经网络模拟相结合的先进技术，进行了太湖、湖和金鸡湖的渔业资源开发的系统动力学模型研究。认为控制捕捞强度是调控太湖银鱼、梅鲚、白虾３个主要经济种群的关键因素。影响湖草鱼、团头鲂产量的关键是苦草和轮叶黑藻的生物量。专家鉴定认为，本研究填补了国内空白。

The paper reported the study result on developing fishery resources in Taihu.Gehu and Jinjihu Lakes,using the grey system theory in combination with the advanced international artificial intelligence technique to simulate the ecosystems of the lakes.The results of the grey correlative analysis showed that the water level is an uncontrollable key factor and the fishing intensity is controllable key factor of the enhancement of the salangids in Taihu Lake.By the same method the study result came to a conclusion that the macrophyte species such as Vallisneria spiralis and Hydrilla verticillata are the important factors to effect the fish production in Gehu Lake.Their biomass is a key factor to influence the production of the grass carp and blunt snout bream.The study result,appraised by experts,filled in the gaps and was in the lead at home.