中国基准利率选择的实证分析

Empirical Research on the Selection of Chinese Ruling Rate of Interest

文章利用我国金融市场利率数据(1997-2005年)建立计量经济学模型,对再贴现利率、同业拆借利率、债券市场回购利率和债券市场现券交易利率成为基准利率的可行性进行实证分析,发现同业拆借利率是我国基准利率的最佳候选者,但仍需进一步的培育。通过分析上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor),发现Shibor虽然还存在不完善因素,但具备成为基准利率的潜力。

This paper, using the data from Chinese financial market （1997-2005） to set up econometric models, analyzes the possibilities of rediscount rate, interbank offered rate, interbank bond buyback rate and interbank bond spot structure rote to be ruling rate of interest. The conclusion is that interbank offered rote is the most appropriate choice for Chinese ruling rate of interest. More analyses are done on Shibor （Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate）. The conclusion is that Shibor has the potential to grow into the vane in Chinese financial market, though it does get some imperfect factors at present.