青岛百年气温变化及其影响因素分析

Variations of Air Temperature in the Past 100-year in Qingdao and Its Influencing Factors

利用青岛百年月平均气温资料,用统计方法分析了青岛气温的变化特征。从全球变暖、大气环流、ENSO事件、青岛经济发展以及城市热岛效应等方面分析了这些要素对青岛气温的影响。结果表明:青岛的气温变化趋势与我国华北地区基本一致,但青岛在20世纪初期的寒冷期要比华北地区长10 a左右,青岛的百年升温幅度高于全国和我国北方省份,春季气温升幅与全国相比偏大;西伯利亚高压与青岛冬季月平均气温呈显著负相关,西太平洋副热带高压与青岛夏季气温的相关性除8月外均不显著,北极涛动指数与青岛1—3月气温相关较为显著;ENSO事件与青岛年平均气温相关不显著。

Based on the monthly mean air temperature data in the past 100 a,this paper statistically studies variation characteristics of air temperature in Qingdao and the effects on the temperature of global warming,atmospheric circulation,ENSO events,economic development and urban heat island.The results show that the variability and trend of air temperature in Qingdao are basic similar to those in North China,but the period of cooling in the early 20th century is 10 years longer.The increasing amplitude of temperature in the past 100 years in Qingdao is higher than the mean amplitude over China or other provinces in northern China,and the increasing amplitude of spring temperature is also higher than other provinces.It is found that wintertime temperature in Qingdao is close related with Siberian high and Arctic Oscillation indices,but not close related with ENSO events.In summertime,temperature in Qingdao is not obviously related with Subtropical high indices except in August.