脱贫与经济增长:“贵州新现象”探析——贵州云南两省的比较研究

Poverty Alleviation and Economic Growth:An Inquiry into the "Guizhou New Phenomenon"——A Comparative Study of Guizhou and Yunnan

经济增长通常意味着贫困率的下降,然而,对于增长很慢的经济体或经济增长没有带动贫困率降低的案例,这种假设似乎并不成立。中国两个较为贫困省份的数据展示了这样一个谜题:贵州省的经济增长缓慢但农村贫困率的下降较为显著,对这一现象不妨称之为"贵州新现象";与此同时,云南省经济高速增长但贫困率下降较为迟缓。根据相关考察和统计数据的分析,交通、流动人口、旅游业和矿产业四个因素是解释这个谜题的关键。这四个因素在两个省的不同分布和构造解释了它们经济增长与贫困率下降关系中的不平衡性。

Economic growth generally reduces poverty. However, this hypothesis offers few alternatives for economies that are unable to grow, or for cases in which economic growth fails to reduce or actually exacerbates poverty. Data from two of China＇ s poorest provinces reveal a puzzle： Guizhou＇ s rural poverty rate declined despite stagnant growth, which we might as well call the ＂Guizhou New Phenomenon＂, while Yunnan ＇ s high economic growth rate largely failed to reduce rural poverty. Based on statistical data and fieldwork, in the two provinces, four factors - roads, migration, tourism, and coal mining - appear to be crucial in explaining this puzzle. ＂Differences in how these four factors are distributed and struc- tured in the two provinces explain their disparate patterns of economic growth and poverty reduction.