“十一五”期间我国能源需求及节能潜力预测

China's Energy Demand and Conservation Potential Forecast During the 11th Five-Year Plan Period

节约能源是深入贯彻科学发展观、加快建设节约型社会的重要内容之一,我国“十一五”规划纲要提出了要实现2010年能源强度比2005年下降20%左右的目标。本文通过建立能源经济模型,分析了投资率、能源价格、技术进步等影响能源需求的关键因素,针对不同的经济增长情景,对“十一五”期间我国的能源需求和节能潜力进行了预测,提出了力争在“十一五”期间实现较低能源需求的对策建议。

Saving energy is one of the crucial issues of fully implementing the scientific concept of development and building conservation-minded society. In its I lth Five Year Plan, China has set a target of reducing its energy intensity by about 20% by 2010 in respect to 2005 value. By building an energy-economy model, this paper studies the impacts of investment ratio, energy price and technological progress on energy demand, forecasts China＇s energy demand and conservation potential during 2006-2010 based on some possible economic growth scenarios, and puts forward policy recommendations to realize less energy demand in this period.