基于模糊概率方法的泥石流危险性评价

Debris Flow Danger Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Probability Method

为客观合理评价泥石流危险性,选取泥石流(可能)规模、泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域最大相对高差、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数、泥砂补给段长度比、24 h最大降雨量、人口密度等10个因子作为泥石流危险性评价指标,运用模糊概率方法建立了泥石流危险性评价模型,并对8条典型泥石流沟的危险性进行了评价.研究表明,模糊概率方法在继承模糊综合评判法的思想和优点的同时,克服了在实际应用中其评价因子权重取值的不确定性,从而为进行有效的泥石流灾害防治提供了可靠的科学依据.

In order to properly evaluate the danger of debris flow, ten factors such as selected debris flow potential scale, occurrence frequency of debris flow, drainage area, length of main ditches, maximum relative altitude in drainage area, incising density, bending coefficient of major ditch bed, length proportion of debris supplement section, maximum rainfall in 24 hours and population density, etc. , are used in fuzzy probability model. Eight typical debris ditches are analyzed using the fuzzy probability methods and objective and reasonable evaluation results are obtained. It is shown that the fuzzy probability method not only holds the merit of classical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, but also overcomes its shortage in practices and it could offer reliable scientific basis for preventing; and it curing the debris flow disaster effectively.