主成分分析在城市可持续发展评价中的应用

Study and Application of the Principal Component Analysis in Sustainable Development of Urban

基于可持续发展理论,选取19项指标建立了城市可持续发展评价指标体系。提出主成分分析方法在城市可持续发展评价中的应用思路和过程,采用社会科学统计软件包SPSS(13.0)对合肥"十五"期间可持续发展状况进行实证评价研究。最终选取3个主成分,建立了综合评价模型并计算得到了城市可持续发展综合评价值。结合定性方法,对合肥市可持续发展状况进行讨论得到:"十五"期间,合肥市可持续发展总体水平逐年上升,其中第三产业占GDP比例、人均耕地面积和工业废水排放达标率对合肥市可持续发展起着负面作用。研究结果可为合肥可持续发展的布局与规划提供理论依据,同时验证了主成分分析方法在城市可持续发展中的可行性。

The evaluation indices system of sustainable development is established based on the theory of sustainable development, The application of the principal component analysis was introduced in the paper, with the demonstration study of sustainable development of Hefei from the year 2001-2005 by the SPSS （statistics package for social science） （13.0） software.Three principal components were chosen at last, and then the comprehensive model was estabhshed and the comprehensive indices were obtained. Then the sustainable development state of Hefei was discussed. It was concluded that the sustain-able development state of Hefei was increasing; the ratio of third industry to GDP, percentage of industrial waste water up to the standards for discharge and area per capita of cultivated land held back sustainable development of Hefei. The results can provide the theory basis for the layout of sustainable de-velopment of Hefei. at the same time, which proved the practicability of application of the principal component analvsis in sustainable development.