南水北调河北省受水区水资源可持续利用AHP量化研究

Quantification Research in Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in the Reception Basin of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Hebei Province Using AHP

为了充分利用调入水,实现南水北调河北省受水区水资源可持续利用,以受水区7个设区市为主要研究对象,考虑2010年南水北调工程建成为前提,预测了7个设区市现状水平年为2005年和预测的2010、2015、2020、2025、2030年在95%保证率下供需平衡状况,以此为依据,确定各设区市水资源可持续利用的权重系数,利用层次分析法(AHP)构建河北省受水区水资源可持续利用评价模型,进行定性分析和定量计算,对加大治污力度、控制地下水开采、加强节水措施、完善技术管理这4项水资源可持续利用对策进行重要程度排序。得出整个受水区及7个设区市主要可持续利用对策的重要程度排序:整个受水区可持续利用对策中,控制地下水开采最重要,其次是治污措施;邯郸市完善技术管理最重要,其次是控制地下水开采。

In order to use the transferred water and realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in the reception basin of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Hebei Province, based on the completion of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the quantity of water supply and demand now, in 2010 and 2030 is considered under 50% guaranteed rate. Having studied the balance between supply and demand of water resources in the reception basin in Hebei Province, the sustainable utilization of water resources in the reception basin is analyzed using Analytic Hierachy Process （AHP）. The Importance of some sustainable methods is classified： seen from the prospective of whole reception basin the most important Sustainable strategy is waste control; in the cities of Shijiazhuang and Handan, the second important strategy is waste control and then groundwater exploitation control; in the cities of Xintai, Baoding, Cangzhou, Hengshui, and Langfang, the second important strategy is groundwater exploitation and then water con- servation. At last, it is proposed that groundwater exploitation should be controlled, water conservation measures should be strengthened, efforts to control pollution should be intensified, management should be revised and water resources should be allocated rationally.