中国火灾与社会经济因素的相关分析

Correlation Analysis between Fire and Socioeconomic Factors in China

根据1997—2004年的统计数据,借助于科学软件MATLAB,对中国31个不同地区4个火灾指标(火灾起数、死亡人数、受伤人数、直接损失)与11个社会经济因素(GDP、人均GDP、人口总数、城市人口密度、国土面积、平均货币工资、大专以上人口、就业人数、城市人均居住面积、失业率、消防投入)的内在数量关系进行多元相关分析,得出了5个重要结果。该结果揭示了火灾指标与多个社会经济因素之间的内在客观规律,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值,可供火灾研究和有关部门的消防决策作参考。

The intrinsic and quantitative relationship between 4 fire indices （number of fire accidents, death toll, injuries, direct losses） and 11 socioeconomic factors （GDP （gross domestic product）, per capita GDP, total population, population density of urban districts, area of territory , average wage, population of college and higher level, number of employment, per capita living space in urban areas, unemployment rate, investment of fire control） in 31 regions of China based on the statistic data from 1997 to 2004 is analyzed by use of multivariable correlation analysis with MATLAB. Five important results are obtained. These results reveal the intrinsic and objective rules between fire indices and socioeconomic factors. It＇s of theoretical significance and applied value, can provide reference for the related units to make decision on fire control.