高拱坝失效模式与失效概率

Failure Mode and Failure Probability of High Arch Dam

为克服高拱坝确定性安全评价中不考虑随机性、不进行风险分析的弊端,提出研究超静定结构高拱坝的失效模式、利用失效概率与失效风险值对高拱坝进行风险评价。在分析洪水、地震和材料老化等造成高拱坝失效原因的基础上,利用故障树分析法探索出高拱坝具有失稳溃坝、剪滑垮坝、超量开裂以及人为毁坝等4种主要失效模式;从产生载荷参数随机数、获取随机变量的分布规律和建立失效模式的状态函数等方面研究了高拱坝单个失效模式与系统失效概率的计算方法。计算了某高拱坝剪滑失效模式的失效概率。

To overcome the shortage in high arch dam deterministic safety evaluation without considering the randomness and risk analyzing. Failure modes of statically indeterminate structure high arch dam are studied to apply failure probability and failure risk value to high arch dam risk evaluation. Based on the analysis of the failure cause, fault tree analysis, the four major failure modes of high arch dam, called the destabilization failure, shear slippage failure, excess cracking and man-caused destruction, are searched out. By establishing the load parameter random number, the regularities of the distribution and the status function of the failure mode, single failure mode of high arch dam and the system failure probability calculating methods is worked out and the failure probability of a certain shear slippage failure mode of high arch dam is calculated.