摘要
本文分别利用1983-2003年的年度数据和1995-2004年的季度数据,运用协整检验及Granger因果检验等方法对我国出口贸易对经济增长的影响进行双变量和多变量的实证分析,结果显示,我国出口与经济增长之间不存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系,但是它们之间存在互为因果的反馈性联系,说明我国现阶段的经济增长是出口导向型的,文章对产生这种现象的原因进行了解释并且给出了相应的政策建议。
This paper applies Granger causality test and co-integration test to analyze the impact of our export trade on the economic growth of China with double variables and multi-variables based separately on the annual data and quarterly data of 1983-2003. Results show that there are no significant long-term stationary dynamic equilibrium relationships between the export trade and the economic growth. But there is feedback relationship of mutual causality between these two variables. It indicates that the current economic growth in China is export-oriented growth. This paper explains this phenomenon and puts forward some recommendations.
出处
《财贸研究》
北大核心
2007年第4期44-49,共6页
Finance and Trade Research
