基于均衡价格形成机制的住宅价格变化特征研究

Analysis of housing price fluctuations based on the formation mechanism of equilibrium price

依据供求关系原理和住宅价格变化特征模型,探讨住宅均衡价格的形成机制与住宅实际价格的变化机理。利用我国35个大中城市2000～2004年的经济统计指标和住宅市场数据,识别出住宅均衡价格;并将实际价格变化分解成均衡价格变化、实际价格的均值回复和趋势性运动等三个组成部分,重点研究住宅实际价格与均衡价格之间的关系。研究表明:我国住宅市场存在由供求基础决定的均衡价格,城镇家庭人均可支配收入、个人住房抵押贷款利率水平、城镇人均居住面积、非农人口数等需求因素,以及供给成本、城市化水平和城市建成区面积等供给因素对住宅均衡价格存在显著影响;住宅实际价格的变化受到均衡价格变化的显著影响;住宅实际价格可通过自我调整回复到均衡价格水平,并存在缓慢上涨的趋势。

In order to find out the mechanisms of housing price formation and fluctuation, the equilibrium housing price is identified by using the classic supply-demand theory, and an analysis model of price fluctuation proposed. Using a set of data on the economic statistics and housing markets of 35 metro areas in China from 2000 to 2004, equilibrium housing prices are proved and calculated; the fluctuation of actual housing prices is decomposed into the influences of equilibrium price, mean reversion and the autocorrelation. The results indicate that equilibrium housing prices as determined by the basic economy foundation exist in China. Demand factors, such as per capita disposable personal income, mortgage interest rate, per capita dwelling space, non-agriculture population, together with the supply factors, such as land cost index, and construction cost, urbanization and urban built-up area, all have significant influences on the equilibrium housing prices. Actual housing prices are greatly influenced by the fluctuation of the equilibrium housing prices and could revert to the equilibrium with the process of self-adjustment. The study also shows that housing prices in China would be continuing to rise in the future.