历史文化村镇旅游流季节性特征比较研究——以西递、周庄为例

A COMPARATIVE RESEARCH ON SEASONALITY CHARACTERISTICS OF TOURIST FLOWS TO THE HISTORIC CULTURE VILLAGE(TOWN)——Examples of Xidi and Zhouzhuang

本文以西递和周庄为例,对历史文化村镇旅游流季节性特征进行比较。研究表明,两地在旅游流季节分布不均匀性、季节分布模式和季节划分方面均存在一定差异。对基尼系数和季节性强度指数的分析表明,两者在描述旅游流的季节性变动特征方面具有可替代性,且前者在一定程度上优于后者。另外,旅游地发展阶段也会对旅游流季节性特征有一定影响。论文建议旅游流季节性特征可作为旅游地发展阶段的一项评估指标。

Seasonahty characteristics of tourist flows to the historic culture village （town） are compared with each other, taking Xidi and Zhouzhuang as examples. According to the comparison results, they have differences in monthly imbalance of tourist flows, seasonal patterns and three seasons partition.the Gini index of Xidi and Zhouzhuang are both lower than 0.5. And the latter is lower than the former, which shows the monthly distribution of tourist flows to Zhouzhuang is relatively more balanced. The analysis of the G-ini index （G） and seasonal intensity index （R） indicated that G could be a substitution for R in describing seasonal fluctuation of tourist flows. Moreover, the Gini index is better than the seasonal intensity index in some degree. As to seasonal patterns, Xidi has a tri-modal one, while Zhouzhuang exhibits a bimodal one. Three seasons partition of two sites is obtained by k-means cluster analysis. Cluster analysis result suggests regularity ofseasonality of two cases and season partition of Xidi is more regular than that of Zhouzhuang. When analyzing influential factors, physiological climate suitability and public holiday are selected as two basic elements representing the natural factor and institutionalized factor respectively. As far as physiological climate suitability is concerned, the most comfortable months of Xidi are April, May and October and those of Zhouzhuang are May, September and October. But those months are not fully consistent with peak seasons of each site. So it is concluded that natural factors are not dominant ones in explaining seasonal changes of tourist flows. At the same time, peak seasons＇ distribution of Xidi is found to be identical with monthly distribution of public holiday. This consistency demonstrates that public holiday is a more important influential factor for Xidi when compared with natural ones. The life cycle of tourist sites is also considered to be one factor that has impact on seasonality characteristics. Currently Xidi and Zhouzhuang are experiencing the development stage. Finally, it is suggested seasonality characteristics of tourist flows could be an evaluation index for judging developing period of tourist sites.