无锡—南通过江通道建设构想及其区域经济影响评价

THE CONCEPTION OF WUXI-NANTONG CROSS-RIVER PASSAGE CONSTRUCTION AND THE EVALUATION OF ITS REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

文章首先简述了国内外交通建设项目评价方法的发展历程和研究进展,在江苏省沿江地区城市合作逐渐加强的背景下,根据长江过江设施的建设情况以及各区段交通发展特点,提出了无锡—南通过江通道的建设构想。定性地分析了过江通道建设对区域产业结构和城镇空间格局的优化作用;引入重力模型的思想改进了诱导交通量的预测方法,并首次利用交通量与地区经济总量的相关模型对大桥建成后的区域经济诱导型增长做了定量评价。

With the enforcement of Riverside Area Development Strategy, the core of regional development of Jiangsu Province has from southern Jiangsu turned to Riverside Area. Uander this, between cities along the cooperation the two sides of Yangtze River in order cncumstances becomes a new mode of regional development. As the biggest city of Middle Jiangsu,Nantong＇s joining with southern Area will accelerate the development of the whole Middle Area. The construction of Su-Tong Bridge and Chong-Qi Cross-River Passage have surely optimized the location condition of Nantong, but the lack of the straight passage between Nantong and Wuxi will restrain the economic exchange between the two cities,and slow the urbanization of this region. Firstly, this paper reviews the development process and the progress of evaluation methods at home and abroad. Secondly, based on the traffic increasing character and the construction of establishments across Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, the paper puts forward the construction of Wuxi-Nantong Cross-River Passage. Finally, analyzes the optimizing effects of the construction of this bridge to the industrial and spatial structrue of the region qualitatively; using the Induced Traffic Forecasting model and the correlation model between traffic and GDP, evaluates the regional economic development induced by this project quantitatively.