最小偏差分析法在经济周期分析中的应用

The Application of Minimal Error Analytital Method in the Analysis of Economic Periodicity

利用最小偏差分析法,分析了我国GDP增长率的周期性特征,并对我国今后几年的GDP增长率进行了预测.分析的结果是:从1953—2006年,我国GDP增长率存在着7年左右的小周期,15年左右的中周期,19年左右的中长周期和28年左右的大周期,而且随着时间的推移,经济周期的波动幅度逐渐趋小,反映出经济增长的稳定性增强.预测的结果是:今后几年(2年或更长一段时间)我国GDP增长率应该保持在10%左右,波动的区间为[9%,11%].

The paper analyzes the periodic characteristics of China GDP increasing rate by means of minimal error analytical method and forecasts the GDP increasing rate in a few years. The result analyzed is： during the years 1953-2006, in GDP increasing rate, there is a short periodicity of 7 years or so, a median one of 15 years, a reed-long periodicity of 19 years, and a long one of 28 years. With the passing of time, the range of fluctuation of economic periodicity is getting smaller and smaller, which shows the strengthening of stability in economic growth. The result predicted is that the GDP increasing rate should remain at 10% or so in a few years （two years or longer）. The fluctuation ranges between 9% and 11%.