桂林市旅游人数的时间序列预测模型

The Model of Time Series Prediction of the Number of the Tourists in Guilin

采用一阶自然对数差分和一阶季节差分来数学处理桂林市月旅游人数时间序列的季节性和波动性趋势，并依据1999年1月-2006年8月桂林市月旅游人数数据，建立桂林市旅游人数的时间序列预测模型，并将该模型与实际数据进行拟合和预测，结果表明该模型与实际数据的拟合性好，预测得到的数据与实际数据误差较小，可以实际用来预测未来日旅游人数的基本趋势，为管理和市场决策提供参考.

This paper makes mathematical treatment of the seasonal and volatility trend of the time series of the number of tourists per month in Guilin by using one order natural logarithm difference and one order season difference, establishes the model of time series prediction of the number of tourists in Guilin based on the number of tourists of Guilin from January 1999 to August 2006, and combines the model with the actual data. The results indicates that the model fits well with the actual data, with small difference between the data obtained from the forecast and the actual data. Consequently, this model can be used to predict the basic trend of the number of tourists per month in Guilin and provide a reference to the management and the market.