环境库兹涅茨曲线假说及其在中国的检验

The Hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve and its Test in China

经济与环境协调发展是我国经济发展中的重大课题。本文从环境库兹涅茨曲线假说出发,利用中国各个省市区1989～2004年数据建立面板数据模型,运用固定效应模型和随机效应模型对其进行估计,以此剖析我国经济增长与环境污染水平的演变规律。结果表明,环境库兹涅茨曲线假说在我国并不成立。因此,我国不能盲目重复发达国家"先污染,后治理"的传统模式,而应该走环境与经济持续协调发展的道路。

The balanced development between economy and environment is of crucial importance to China. The paper bases on the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Then we establish the panel data model in purpose of analyzing relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in China with panel data： cross sections are almost all provinces of China and time series of 1989-2004. Further more, we apply the FEM and REM to estimate the model. The result shows that： Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist in China up to now. Therefore, China can not repeat the developed countries＇ traditional model ＂damage environment in order to growth, then cure it＂. So sustainable development should be the wise policy for China＇s industrialization.