我国中部地区对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between External Trade and Economic Growth in Central Area of China

本文利用1980～2004年的经济数据,在单位根检验和协整分析的基础上进行了Granger因果检验和建立误差修正模型,对我国中部地区对外贸易与经济增长关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:我国中部地区进出口与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,进出口与经济增长之间是单向的格兰杰因果关系,出口对经济增长的作用大于进口,应该继续坚持出口导向型经济发展战略,同时重视进口的作用。

Based on the economic data from 1980 to 2004, this paper studied the relationship between economic growth and foreign trade in central area of china by error correction model and granger estimation. After detailed study, the result showed that the external trade and economic growth did have a long positive balance relationship and there was uni-direction causality between them; the function of export trade was bigger than that of import trade. Therefore, the export-oriented growth strategy must be insisted on and at the same time the role of import trade should be emphasized.