水文系统模拟不确定性研究进展

Research Progress on Uncertainty in Hydrologic Simulation

从水文系统模拟的基本特点出发,分析了水文模拟中广泛存在的不确定性的来源,对与水文系统模拟不确定性相关的研究进展进行了分类回顾,并介绍了贝叶斯概率水文预报理论的一般流程。研究回顾表明,数理统计是定量描述水文不确定性的有利工具。其次,完善水文机理研究,提高降水及下垫面相关参数的观测水平,以及提高降水预报的精度、概率水文算法的效率和精度是进一步减少水文模拟的不确定性的发展方向。

Based on the basic characters in hydrologic simulation, the authors analyzed the causes of uncertainty widely existed in hydrologic simulation, reviewed on research progress in various hydrologic simulation uncertainty, and introduced the general flow of Bayesian Probability Hydrology Forecasting System. It has been found that the mathematical statistics is a helpful tool for quantitatively describing hydrologic un- certainty, besides, to further limit the uncertainty of hydrologic simulation needs efforts in following studies： to perfect the research on hydrologic mechanism, to improve the observation level of precipitation and the related parameters of underlying surface, to increase the precipitation forecast accuracy, and to heighten the efficiency and precision of probability hydrology calculation.