火球热辐射后果计算动态模型的应用

On the dynamic model application to the fireball radiation consequence calculation

为了精确地评估火球的热辐射后果,需要深入研究火球热负荷对影响区域暴露人员所造成的伤害。详细介绍了具有时间属性的火球热辐射动态模型,以实例描绘了火球直径、高度以及目标接受到的热通量等火球参数的动态变化规律。结果表明:具有时间属性的火球热辐射动态模型计算出的热辐射值小于静态模型计算的值,动态模型有可能更准确地描述火球参数的实际动态变化,进而合理地确定火球热辐射的人员伤亡区域,并为过热可燃液体容器的安全设计及风险分析提供一种新的后果评估技术及方法。

The paper is aimed to present the author＇s study on how to apply the dynamic model to the fireball radiation consequence calculation. As is known, boiled-liquid expanding vapor explosion （BLEVE） is likely to take place when a sudden loss of containment of a highly pressurized vessel with superheated flammable liquids. The thermal radiation emitted by the resulted fireball is extremely intensive with the great potential to cause severe health-damage even human casualty as well as other kinds of material damage. In order to predict the radiant heat effects of fireballs more accurately, this paper has done a deep-going study of personnel injuries that would be caused by the exposure to a BLEVE fireball. In doing so, the paper has introduced a dynamic model based on the time-varying behavior of fireballs while describing the time-dependent characteristics of the parameters of the fireball, for example, its diameter, height and thermal flux at a target by means of a simple case study. In comparison with the static fireball models, our research results show that the dynamic model can help to describe the time-dependent features of the fireball parameters more truthfully. In so doing, it is also possible to further provides more realistic estimates of the extent of potentially damaging or injuring radiant thermo-hazard zones that are likely to suffer the disastrous consequences caused by the fireballs, Therefore, it can be proved that the dynamic model we suggest here is by nature an effective theoretical one if it can be properly applied to the fireball radiation consequence calculation, It can also be applied in case we conduct a safety design or risk analysis of a storage tank holding superheated inflammable liquid