火箭弹射座椅Bayes可靠性评估方法

Bayesian Reliability Assessment Method of Rocket Ejection Seat

建立了一种综合利用分系统历史信息以及少量座椅试验数据的火箭弹射座椅Bayes可靠性评估方法.利用最大熵方法融合分系统可靠性信息,推导了从分系统可靠性矩到系统可靠性矩的计算公式,最后利用Bayes定理评估系统可靠性.采用该方法对某型火箭弹射座椅可靠性进行了评估,在置信水平0.90情况下其可靠度达到了0.951.结果表明,这种方法是有效的,能在少量的整机试验下,获得对火箭弹射座椅可靠性较为准确的评估.

A Bayesian reliability assessment method for rocket ejection seat is put forward. The method combines the reliability information of the whole seat and its subsystems. The maximum entropy method is used to syncretize the reliability information of subsystems; the calculation formulas of reliability moments of the system are deduced from reliability moments of subsystems; the Bayes theorem is used to evaluate system reliability. With the new method, the reliability of a rocket ejection seat is evaluated that reaches 0.951 under the confidence level 0.90. The result shows that it is effective to use the new method to evaluate the reliability of the rocket ejection seat.