时间序列分析在人口预测问题中的应用

Application of time series analysis in population prediction

时间序列分析是研究动态数据的动态结构和发展变化规律的统计方法。以1949年至2001年中国大陆人口自然增长率为例,用时间序列分析和统计学软件Eviews建立模型,并对人口进行预测,取得较好的效果。说明时间序列分析在人口预测问题上是有效的。

Time series analysis is a statistic method studying dynamic structure of dynamic data and the law of development and change. Based on the example of population growth rate between 1949 and 2001 in the mainland of China, mathematic models were established with time series analysis method and statistic software Eviews, and population was predicted with it. It received a good result. Therefore the application of time series analysis is effective in population prediction.