摘要
分析了我国能源消费趋势,指出农作物秸秆作为生物质能源材料的一个重要组成部分,具有可再生性、可储藏性和可替代性、资源丰富、二氧化碳零排放的优良特性,发展生物质能源有助于缓解我国能源消费压力。通过设定部分调整模型,分析农作物秸秆产量的潜力,探索了中国农作物秸秆产量的变化规律及其发展趋势。运用灰色关联分析,从农业生产要素投入的角度,分析农作物秸秆总产量与粮食总产量之间的长期关系,指出科技进步和农业结构调整有利于为生物质能源的发展提供更多原材料,有利于促进中国能源消费结构的优化。
The paper aralyzed energy consumption trend, and points out that as one of the important components of the bio-energy material, with the advantage of renewable, storable substitutive, abundant, carbon-neutral, after transformed to energy, crop straw will reduce China＇ s energy consumption pressure. By using partial adjustment model, the paper analyzes grey correlation analysis method explores crop straw production potential, the rule and developing trend of crop straw production, and the long relationship between crop straw and food production. Finally, it reveals that technology improvement and agriculture structure adjustment can conduce to produce more energy material and make China＇s energy constunption structural more reasonable.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2007年第5期84-89,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
粮食安全目标下我国粮食生产
流通与储备协调机制研究(编号:70673027)
武汉市生物质能开发利用支撑体系构建研究(编号:20062009135-02)资助
