基于实物期权的风险投资退出决策模型研究

Exit Decision Model Based on Real Options in Venture Capital

针对传统NPV方法应用于风险投资退出决策的局限,本文利用实物期权理论,将可观测的利润流作为内生变量,建立了风险投资的最优退出决策模型,通过模型求出了不同退出方式条件下的实物期权价值和退出时机的临界值,并用实例进行了说明,有效地解决了风险投资的退出方式的选择问题,使得风险投资的退出决策过程更具操作性和现实性。

Aimed at the limitation of the fact that the traditional NPV method is applied to the venture capital exit decision, the paper sets up an exit decision model by the real options theory in which the observable profit flow is defined as the endogenous variable. The values of profit flows and the real option values corresponding to the ways of exit are derived. Then an example is presented to illustrate the results obtained. So the venture capital exit decision is effectively solved, and the venture capital exit decision-making process is still operative and practical.