刺激国内消费需求增长的财政政策效应分析

Effect of Fiscal Policy Stimulating Domestic Consumption Demand

本文构建了一个内生的货币供给体系,考察财政政策与消费需求之间的关系。通过对1979—2005年的相关数据进行回归分析。结果表明,从长期来看,居民的可支配收入和工资在国民收入中的比重是影响居民消费需求的主要因素。我国1998年以来实施积极的财政政策导致资产价值的不断膨胀和相对价格的失衡,使工资在总资产中的比重不断下降,这是导致近年来国内消费需求难以启动的主要原因。

In this paper, we consider an endogenetic money supply system to review the relation between fiscal policy and consumption demand. The regression analysis of relating data from 1979 to 2005 indicates that residents＇ disposable income and the proportion of salary to GDP are the major factors that influence their consumption demand in the long term. The active fiscal policy since 1998 resulted in the consistent expand of assets and the unbalance of relative price which lead to the proportion of salary to asset dechne. So this is the main reason that makes domestic consumption demand hardly increase over recent years.