储蓄大于投资与中国国际收支持续双顺差

The Imbalance of Balance of Payments of China and Study on Strategic Adjustment Policies

本文通过对1985—2006年中国国际收支及相关数据的深入分析,发现中国长期存在的储蓄持续大于投资是中国国际收支长期保持双顺差而失衡的根本原因。这实际上是在国际分工深化,产业转移的大背景下,折射出中国内部经济结构的失衡,针对中国国际收支失衡对中国经济产生的负向冲击,本文提出了多项应对策略及可行的政策搭配方案。

This paper profoundly analyses balance of payments of China with relative data in 1985 - 2006 period and found that： saving exceeding investment continuously in the long run is the fundamental cause of twin - surplus of China which reflects the inner imbalance of economic structure of China under background of intensive international specialization and industry upgrading and transfer. Therefore, for the negative impacts of BP imbalance, the paper proposes several policies and a kind of feasible policy - matching approach.