聊城市麻疹发病预测研究及经济学评价

Prediction Study and Economic Evaluation on Measles Prevalence in Liaocheng City

[目的]对聊城市麻疹发病趋势进行预测研究，并进行经济学评价。[方法]根据聊城市历年麻疹发病率及麻疹监测系统运转状况．利用SPSS软件进行曲线拟合Curve Fitting和麻疹发病率预测分析。[结果]利用指数方程，得出2010年、2015年和2020年麻疹发病率预测值及可信区间，同时进行经济学评价。根据预测，2010年麻疹发病率为0．196／10万，95％可信区间为0．021／10万～1．860／10万；2015年麻疹发病率为0．123／10万，95％可信区间为0.011／10万～1.580／10万；2015年麻疹发病率为0．077／10万，95％可信区间为0．000／10万～1．410／10万。[结论]当前麻疹控制策略继续保持，其发病率将会呈现缓慢下降趋势，但幅度较小。麻疹监测系统的实施，对聊城市的麻疹控制工作起到了积极的推动作用，取得了显著的社会效益和经济效益。

[Objective]This investigation was to study the current characteristics of measles prevalence and make economic evaluation. [Methods]Based on the incidence of measles in the past years and the operating status of the measles surveillance system , curve fitting ahd prediction analysis of measles, were conducted with SPSS statistical software. [Results]The predicted value and credibility interval for the incidence of measles in 2010,2015 and 2020 were made with exponential equation, economic evaluation was evaluated at the same time. After exponential equation forecast,the incidence of measles in 2010 will be 0.96/100 000,0. 123/100 000 in 2010 and 0. 077/100 000 in 2015. The 95% of CI will be 0. 021 1. 860/100 000.0. 011--1. 580/100000 and 0. 000--1. 410/100 000. [Conclusion]If the current measles control strategy could be carried out continuously , the incidence of measles will be reduced. The implementation of measles surveillance system played an active effect to control measles prevalence in Liaocheng, remarkable social and economic benefit was obtained.