庄浪县小麦条锈病越夏特点及其菌源量预报

Oversummering Characteristics of Wheat Stripe Rust and Prediction of Bacteria Amount in Zhuanglang County

庄浪县小麦条锈病越夏期病源发生的特点是:病菌源头在高寒阴湿山区;阴坡地自生麦苗始见期早,菌源量大;有效菌源寄主生长时间长、范围广;密度高、苗龄大的自生麦苗发病重。通过对1989-2006年小麦条锈病越夏调查资料统计分析,认为越夏病菌量与8-9月降水量和当年条锈病流行程度呈极显著正相关,与平均温度≥22℃日数呈极显著负相关,并组建了越夏病菌量测报模型,预报准确率达到94.4%。

The occurrence of Zhuanglang County wheat stripe rust during oversummering period was characterized by high altitude humid mountainous areas were the source of bacterium; the beginning of wheat stripe rust was early; the host of effective bacterium could grow long time, with a wide range; high density aged wheat seedlings had heavy stripe rust. The statistical analysis of survey data of wheat stripe rust during oversummering period from 1989 to 2006 showed that oversummering bacteria amount was a significant positively correlated with the volume of precipitation from August to September and the extent of stripe rust occurrence ; there was a significant negative correlation between the number of days with an average temperature that was more than 22℃ and summer bacteria amount. The oversummering bacteria volume forecasting models were made with accuracy rate of 94.4%.