摘要
地下水系统是一个复杂的时间序列系统，其变化与区域气候条件和生态环境密切相关，具有明显的年际周期性变化和随机性波动。用合适的模型描述地下水位动态变化，可以极大地提高地下水位的预测精度，使田间土壤水分的适时适量调节方便可行；对于农田水利工程的规划和管理也有所裨益。本文通过三种时间序列模型对地下水实测资料的模拟，阐述了这三种模型的特点和模拟精度。
The ground water system is a complicated time series system. The variation of ground water table is closely related with the climate condition and ecosystem, and therefore which is characterized by significant yearly periodic changes and random fluctuations. It would be beneficial to the irrigation and drainage and for regulating the ecosystem of farmland if an appropriate model is applied to describing the dynamic changes of ground water to raise the forecasting accuracy of ground water table. The characteristics of three different models and their computing accuracy are discussed through the establishing methods of three kinds of models.
