基于分形方法的我国重特大火灾形势预测

The Situation Analysis of Big Fires and Conflagrations in China Based on Fractal Theory

在对1997年至2005年间我国重特大火灾事故的起数和直接损失两项指标统计分析的基础上,将在工程和经济学等领域中应用广泛的分形方法经过改进,讨论了分形分布模型对未来重特大火灾事故发展态势进行预测分析的合理性。研究分析结果表明,我国近九年来重特大火灾事故的形势持续平稳,而且稳中有降,重特大火灾事故得到了有效遏制。分形方法预测结果表明,2006年和2007年我国重大火灾事故的起数和直接损失都将持续下降,特大火灾事故的起数和直接损失呈波动性下降趋势。

Based on the study of the two indexes of big fires and conflagrations, number and direct loss from 1997 to 2005, this paper discusses the rationality of the widely - applied improved fractal model in engineering and economics. The results indicate that the occurrence of big fires and conflagrations in recent nine years is lowering and good for controlling. The situation is stable. The number of big fires is lowing obviously, and the number of conflagrations is lowering, so do for the direct losses of both large fire and conflagration. It shows by the results of fractal theory that the number and direct loss of big fire in 2006 and 2007 will continue to lower. In addition, the number and direct loss of conflagration in those years will be lower.