对分析预报中心发展统计学方法的建议

STATISTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CENTER FOR ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION(CAP)

本文简要地对分析预报中心利用统计学方法所做工作的可能进展提出了一些建议。前两节对统计学方法在地震学中所起的作用做了大致的介绍,并概述了笔者所了解的分析预报中心利用这类方法的范围和必要性。文章认为在利用统计学方法进行地震研究中,分析预报中心应该成为独一无二的国家级的、甚至是国际级的科研中心;目前分析预报中心非常需要利用这类方法,并且此方法将来很可能越来越需要。第三节提出了为发展统计学方法,应早日建立一个新的机构来对此方法进行专门研究和推广,并在分析预报中心内或是在国家地震局内逐渐成为一个中心。另外,还对这一发展中的一些优势和可能遇到的困难进行了讨论。

This report outlines some suggestions for possible development of the statistical side of the work of CAP.The first two sections outline respectively a general impression of the evolving role of statisti- cal methods within seismology,and an impression of the scope and need for such methods within CAP.It is argued that CAP is uniquely placed to become a centre for such methods-nationally and even internationally;has an urgent need for them at the present time;and is likely to need them in- creasingly in the future.In the third section it is suggested that to develop the statistical aspects of its work,CAP might look towards setting up a new section,which specialised in research on,and the development of,statistical methods,and acted as a centre of advice on such methods within CAP and perhaps within the State Seismological Bureau(SSB)more generally.Some of the advantages and possible difficulties of such a development are discussed.