中国非实体资本流动分析与政策建议

The risk of Non FDI Capital flow and its policy implication

与流行观点相违背的是,我国外汇储备在1998-2000、2001-2003所表现出来的特征主要是由于非实体资本的流动所引起,而非由外国直接投资所导致。从1997年亚洲金融危机爆发后的1998-2000、2001-2004、2005-2006三个时期来看,我国非实体资本流动分别呈现大规模流出——流入——流出三个特点,表明我国对非实体资本的监控尚缺乏有效力度。2004年后我国加大了对资本市场开放的力度,因此有必要加强对非实体资本流动的监控以降低其带来的负效应。

Contrary to some popular perceptions, the trait of foreign exchange reserves is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI between 1997-2003. Since 1997 non- FDI flow present three stages, it confirms that we are still lack non-FDI under control, with the more capital market openness in the future, we should strengthen non-FDI control to reduce its negative effects.